As hurricane season approaches, we're sharing some encouraging news. On May 21, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its 2026 Atlantic outlook, giving the season a 55% chance of being below normal. Forecasters put the odds of a near-normal season at 35% and an above-normal one at just 10%.
NOAA projects 8 to 14 named storms, with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those, 3 to 6 could become hurricanes, and 1 to 3 could reach major hurricane strength (Category 3 or above). The agency says it is 70% confident in these ranges.
An average season brings about 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. In other words, even the high end of this year's forecast only matches a typical year.
The season runs from June 1 to November 30. NOAA will update its outlook in early August, ahead of the usual peak from mid-September through October.
The main factor is El Niño, which NOAA expects to develop and strengthen over the summer. It tends to make it harder for Atlantic storms to form.
Slightly warmer ocean temperatures and weaker trade winds could push things the other way, since both favor storm activity. For now, forecasters expect El Niño to have the upper hand.
NOAA is careful to note that its outlook covers overall activity, not where or when storms will make landfall. As National Weather Service Director Ken Graham reminded the public, "It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season."
That's why NOAA encourages everyone to review their preparedness plans now. For insurers and adjusters, that includes planning ahead for catastrophe response and for where displaced policyholders will stay if their homes become unlivable. For hosts in hurricane-prone areas, it's a good moment to make sure their furnished homes are ready if a nearby community needs them.
We hope the forecast holds and this season passes quietly. But if a storm does turn the season into a hard one for some families, Sinistar will be there, as always, to help them find a comfortable place to stay while they get back on their feet.
Sources
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), "NOAA predicts below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season," May 21, 2026: noaa.gov
Thumbnail image: NOAA Satellites, via NOAA, "NOAA predicts below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season," May 21, 2026: noaa.gov